WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East
GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization is sharply increasing its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its prediction to 3.9% as booming AI investments offset a hit from war in the Middle East.
The Geneva-based trade body says global trade chugged along at a hearty pace, as supply chains adapted and AI-related spending poured into to provide “a powerful boost to goods trade.”
The revised forecast marks a big jump from an initial WTO forecast in this spring for 1.9% growth for merchandise trade growth — the figure excludes services trade. The trade body forecast growth next year of 4.1% — up from 2.9% predicted in March.
“The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods,” WTO said. Trade of oil and gas and fertilizer through the Persian Gulf was shaken after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in February.
WTO said merchandise trade grew 3.5% in the first half of the year, powered by the artificial intelligence market.
“Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose by 67% year-on-year, accelerating from the already rapid expansion seen in 2024 and 2025,” WTO said.
Liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East fell by 47% in the first half of the year, while crude oil exports dropped by nearly a quarter, WTO said. But shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline to roughly 1% for LNG and about 6% for crude.
WTO said it expects global GDP to grow 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, even though it predicted that the Middle East conflict will continue to weigh on trade through higher energy prices and transport route disruptions.
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